What ThinkLab is Hearing: Navigating Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Industry Whiplash

As the interiors industry continues to navigate an unsteady economic landscape, tariffs have emerged as yet another layer of complexity—fueling tough decisions, real fatigue, and unexpected ripple effects across every part of the value chain. Through our most recent round of one-on-one conversations, ThinkLab has been listening closely to what presidents, CEOs, and leaders across the ecosystem are experiencing in real time.

What follows is a synthesis of those anonymized voices, supported by visual snapshots that aim to bring clarity, connection, and context to the moment we’re all working through—together.

Manufacturers: Tactical Pressure + Strategic Uncertainty

Manufacturers are in a reactive posture, juggling questions around pricing changes, when to act, and—critically—how to communicate the change. Whether it’s labeled a “tariff recovery fee,” a “surcharge,” or a “price increase” the need for clarity is high.

While the immediate chaos of March (described by one interviewee as “Defcon 5”) has cooled, anxiety remains high—particularly among smaller brands and more so for furniture manufacturers than other product categories. Time is a growing cost center; leadership teams report fielding 4–5 calls a day just to manage internal alignment and customer expectations. As one interviewee put it, “The business swirl is the untold cost.”

From an operational standpoint, the complications are real. Most ERP systems aren’t built to handle temporary, line-item fee increases. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting from well-meaning partners and clients to hold pricing longer—even as material costs and tariffs rise. And calculating the true impact? Nearly impossible. Variables differ by product, input, supplier, and now sourcing origin.

Strategically, the response is fragmented. Some manufacturers are proactively communicating new fee structures to get ahead of it. One client even quoted our own end user research back to us saying, “We know from ThinkLab research that clients would rather know pricing would double than deal with the uncertainty.” (You can download highlights of that research here or listen to this podcast episode.) Some manufacturers are proudly touting their U.S.-based supply chains with messages of no price increase or even promotional specials, while others are holding back, opting for a “wait and see” approach. Global sourcing, especially from China, presents a real conundrum: while public sentiment paints China as a low-cost provider, one industry leader shared, “You think China is just low cost, but the truth is other options can’t match their quality, dependability and technology.”

A+D Firms: Less Panic, More Fatigue

For A&D firms, tariffs have not yet fully rippled through to project execution—but the psychological toll of uncertainty is growing. Designers and architects describe the current moment as “trudging through the mud.” While work is happening, enthusiasm is muted.

Larger firms appear buffered. In some cases, they are even picking up talent from smaller studios that are feeling greater strain. Most say tariffs won’t stop projects already in motion, but concerns are rising for the second half of the year, especially in sectors affected by federal funding shifts.

There’s a growing focus on sourcing strategies, with some early signals that bids from Canada in particular may begin to favor non-U.S. products. Quick-ship options are more appealing than ever, especially as lead time anxiety for many designers eclipses cost as their primary concern. GSA and government-funded work is highly volatile—though some note this follows a familiar post-election pattern: early disruption, then stabilization as priorities of the new administration are clarified.

Architecture and engineering teams within larger firms that focus on science and infrastructure report more dramatic slowdowns, while interiors-focused teams seem to be less directly affected—for now. But volatility is forcing design leaders to play a dual role: not just visionaries, but also risk managers, and sometimes counselor; helping clients “stay the course” in a time of swirling doubt.

Furniture Dealers: Caught In the Crosshairs

Furniture dealers may be feeling the pinch most acutely (To be fair, contractors and project managers are likely feeling the pain even more extremely, though these are not audiences ThinkLab interviewed for this particular effort.) Acting as the interface between manufacturers and end clients, dealers are tasked with communicating unpredictable pricing shifts—often without adequate lead time or clarity (5% of what?! LIST, SELL, NET?). As one interviewee put it: “Don’t shoot the messenger.” The good news is that clients are acutely aware of tariffs, so there is less education needed there. The bad news is that they, of course, didn’t budget for this.

Short-term ordering surges—spurred by clients hoping to get ahead of tariff deadlines—have introduced fulfillment chaos. Rushing orders through the system naturally causes errors. Additionally, dealers are being asked to warehouse product arriving far too early, which adds back some of the cost ‘savings’ and increases the risk of damage. What most don’t consider is that these warehousing deays sometimes push installation beyond warranty windows, snowballing problems down the line.

The biggest sentiment from dealers? Margins are eroding, fast. One large dealer reported a multi-million-dollar hit this quarter alone from tariff-related issues if they didn’t pass costs along. Traditional 30-day quote validity is becoming unrealistic. Even worse, some manufacturers are raising prices on orders not yet shipped; which increases the communication challenges in an already chaotic environment. Strategically, dealers are forced into the role of mediator—managing not just expectations, but also logistics, finances, and trust.

Where We Go from Here: ThinkLab’s BASELINE Initiative

In response to this moment of uncertainty, ThinkLab is launching the BASELINE, a dual-track resource designed to offer real-time visibility into industry sentiment and activity across the commercial interiors ecosystem specifically for the product side of the industry. Here’s what’s included:

1. The BASELINE Survey
   This quarterly survey will provide a pulse check on industry sentiment, quoting vs ordering, employment, cost pressures index, and more. It’s open to anyone in the ecosystem: manufacturers, dealers, reps, A&D firms even end users—but access to the results operates on a give-to-get model: you must participate in order to receive full data access.
   

We have created these tools to bring more clarity, direction, and confidence to the decisions you're making every day. But we also know we don’t have all the answers. What perspectives did we miss in this summary? What questions are your clients asking that you wish you had better data to answer? We’re building this initiative around the real challenges you’re facing—and we’d love to hear from you. Reach out directly to Amanda on LinkedIn to share your insights or submit the questions you’d like to see explored in future survey data or podcast episodes. This initiative is built for the industry, by the industry—and your voice helps shape it.

Ready to participate? Take the BASELINE survey now and subscribe to the BASELINE Podcast. Let’s build better visibility—together.

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Special thanks to our early partners in this initiative: